📈 Traditional markets are on fire! The S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high of 6,890, driven by a powerful tech rally. Apple ($AAPL) and Microsoft ($MSFT) both surpassed a staggering $4 trillion market cap. Nvidia ($NVDA) was the star, hitting a new ATH above $200/share on news of major partnerships and a massive $500B business forecast. This signals strong risk-on sentiment in equities. 💥 Crypto faced a volatile day. After touching nearly $116k, Bitcoin saw a sharp pullback to the $112k-$113k range. This move triggered a significant leverage flush, with over $150 million in long positions liquidated in just one hour. Ethereum followed, dropping back towards the $4k support level. 📊 What the Metrics Tell Us: • Bitcoin Bull Run Index (71): Unchanged. Despite the daily volatility, the broader macro trend remains firmly bullish. • Altcoin Season Index (43): Also unchanged. This indicates capital is still focused on Bitcoin, and a broad altcoin rally hasn't started yet. • BTC Long/Short Ratio (1.27): Decreased from 1.45 yesterday. While still net-long, this shows traders are becoming more cautious after the recent price drop. 🧠 Market Sentiment & Catalysts: Sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, largely driven by Polymarket data showing a 98% probability of a Fed rate cut tomorrow. This is a massive tailwind for risk assets. In crypto, sentiment is buoyed by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon's complete reversal, now stating "crypto is real," and France's proposal to acquire 420,000 BTC for a strategic reserve. However, a concerning divergence is emerging. While markets soar, major companies like UPS, Paramount, and Chegg are announcing thousands of job cuts, and subprime auto loan delinquencies have hit an all-time high. This is a classic Wall Street vs. Main Street disconnect. sectors_analysis Energy & Metals: Most energy prices, including oil and natural gas, are trending down, which helps the case for inflation cooling and supports the Fed's expected rate cut. Gold is holding steady around $3,950, but it's not attracting significant safe-haven bids, suggesting investors prefer riskier assets like tech stocks for now. traders_insights Actionable Insights: • Opportunity: The macro trend for both crypto and stocks is bullish, supported by institutional adoption and expected monetary easing. Dips are being viewed as potential buying opportunities by many. • Risk: High leverage in crypto remains the biggest immediate threat, as proven by today's liquidations. The growing weakness in consumer health (loan delinquencies, job cuts) could eventually impact market strength if the trend continues. Key Takeaways: - Record Highs in Stocks: Traditional markets, led by big tech, are in full rally mode, setting new records. - Crypto Correction: Bitcoin's macro bull trend is intact, but the market just washed out significant leverage, reminding traders of high volatility. - Fed Rate Cut Expected: A near-certain rate cut is the primary driver of the current risk-on environment. - Economic Divergence: Keep an eye on the gap between soaring markets and signs of weakness in the real economy.